[Leps-l] [leps-talk] Monarch Armageddon

Foley, Patrick patfoley at saclink.csus.edu
Wed Feb 20 10:40:30 EST 2013


Paul,

As I have said many times now, I doubt Monarchs are in great danger. I simply do not believe the danger is negligible. New pathogens and parasites arise in populations by mutation or host switching. Their transmission to other populations sometimes has disproportionate effects. This is clear for many species including B. occidentalis , even highly mobile ones such as our own. Monarchs are not fully panmictic, even in temperate areas, despite lots of natural mixing.

You have some reason for your Monarch danger skepticism. Not enough to impugn serious researchers who analyze the situation differently than you. If the scientific consensus differs from yours on, say, global warming, is that evidence that all the scientists are wrong? Is it evidence that they are acting in bad faith? You have a lot of experience with Monarchs. Others have much more experience with population genetics, population dynamics, parasitology and epidemiology. Are you sure their insights are foolish?

Patrick Foley
bees, fleas, flowers, disease
patfoley at csus.edu
________________________________________
From: leps-l-bounces at mailman.yale.edu [leps-l-bounces at mailman.yale.edu] on behalf of Paul Cherubini [monarch at saber.net]
Sent: Wednesday, February 20, 2013 12:13 AM
To: Leps List
Subject: Re: [Leps-l] [leps-talk] Monarch Armageddon

On Feb 19, 2013, at 11:15 PM, Foley, Patrick wrote:

> Paul, As we have discussed at great length on other
> listservs, parasites have apparently caused range
> collapse in several Bombus species in North America
> The present understanding is that these parasites
> were transferred from bee breeding facilities in Europe.

Pat, how is that native bumblebee / exotic european parasite
example legitimately comparable to the issue of a few citizen
scientists in the western USA mailing a few thousand
WILD CAUGHT western monarchs to the eastern USA
for for release?

Western monarchs naturally fly under their own power
over the Rocky Mountains to the breeding and
overwintering ranges of the eastern monarchs:
http://swmonarchs.org/az-recoveries.php
http://i636.photobucket.com/albums/uu87/4ALC/NorthAmerica_zps7c99c886.jpg

So that means that western monarchs naturally move
their parasites and genes to the eastern USA.

Monarchs are so common right on top of the Continental
Divide in both northern and southern New Mexico that two
or more of them can be photographed simultaneously:
http://i85.photobucket.com/albums/k75/4af/cdnmd.jpg

And monarch caterpillars can be found at high elevations
in the Colorado Rocky Mountains:
http://i85.photobucket.com/albums/k75/4af/coloi.jpg
http://i85.photobucket.com/albums/k75/4af/coloy.jpg
http://i85.photobucket.com/albums/k75/4af/colou.jpg
http://i85.photobucket.com/albums/k75/4af/colow.jpg

Thus there is no credible scientific basis underlying the
beliefs of Brower, Oberhauser and Taylor that a few
that a few citizen scientists like myself could inadvertently
cause the collapse of the whole eastern
migration-overwintering phenomenon.

Paul Cherubini
El Dorado, Calif.
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