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On Wed, 20 Feb 2013 20:33:11 +0000, Foley, Patrick wrote:
> Directly addressing Paul's 3 points below (paraphrased to put them in
> scientifically interesting form):
>
> 1) Can a small number of transported Monarchs lead to Eastern Monarch
> Migration Collapse through parasite transport? The risk of parasite
> spillover from one Monarch population to another through human
> transport depends on unique characteristics of the two populations
> concerned. For the most part with Monarchs the danger seems small, 
> but
> it is not zero. This follows from our general knowledge of parasite
> host race formation, from our experience with introductions of Bombus
> and from Sonia Altizer's actual data showing that different Monarch
> populations have different levels of parasitism. As we have discussed
> often in the past, there are many kinds of parasites from transposons
> to viruses to protozoa to mites to parasitoid insects. We do not know
> all the present Monarch parasites, and more will evolve or spillover
> to Monarchs in the future.
>
> 2)  Do lower corridor milkweed populations threaten EMMC? The eastern
> Monarch migration does not simply depend on the persistence of
> wintering habitat and milkweed-rich migratory corridors. It depends 
> on
> the overall fitness conferred by a migratory strategy versus a
> nonmigratory strategy. If, as is true for many Monarchs and almost 
> all
> other butterflies, the migratory corridors do not confer superior
> fitness, the Monarchs will evolve away from a long-distance strategy.
> We do not have, as far as I know, satisfactory information or models
> to know how close the threshold (long migrate vs short migrate
> strategy) we are. We do have evidence that the corridors and the
> winter sites have degraded as Monarch habitat.
>
> 3) Does climate change in Monarch winter sites threaten EMMC? I am
> not a climate scientist. The papers I have seen suggest more
> precipitation and more variability in wintering site climate. Either
> of these could discourage Monarch migration. Again, the issue is not
> whether Monarchs can survive, it is whether long distance migration
> confers higher fitness.
>
> My overall guess is that climate change is likely to be the biggest
> factor in changing Monarch's migratory behavior. The parasite risk
> seems small at the moment, but we have seen epidemics destroy entire
> species and populations in the past (for example the American
> Chestnut, the inhabitants of Tierra del Fuego, some Bombus species),
> so it would be well to be cautious about claims of invulnerability.
> Migratory corridors are under substantial remodeling in the US, but
> hopefully, local and national efforts can help to correct that. We
> should be grateful to those who help.
>
> I have appreciated the chance to discuss this interesting topic ( I
> do research on epidemiology, extinction and parasitism, though not on
> Monarchs), and, now that Paul has summed up his main points and I 
> have
> also, I'm happy to leave further discussion to others.
>
> Patrick Foley
> bees, fleas, flowers, disease
> patfoley at csus.edu
> ________________________________________
> From: leps-l-bounces at mailman.yale.edu
> [leps-l-bounces at mailman.yale.edu] on behalf of Paul Cherubini
> [monarch at saber.net]
> Sent: Wednesday, February 20, 2013 11:45 AM
> To: Leps List
> Subject: Re: [Leps-l] [leps-talk] Monarch Armageddon
>
> On Feb 20, 2013, at 11:19 AM, Foley, Patrick wrote:
>
>> Paul, I was not trying to reply to you, point for point, I was
>> making some general points that undermine the view
>> that Monarch releases are totally safe.
>
> Pat, we're getting way off track from the three monarch
> migration extinction questions at hand:
>
> 1) Is there credible scientific basis underlying the beliefs of
> Dr. Brower, Oberhauser and Taylor that a few citizen scientists
> like myself could inadvertently cause the collapse of the
> whole eastern monarch migration-overwintering phenomenon
> via shipping a few thousand wild field caught western
> monarchs to the eastern USA?
>
> 2) Does professor Chip Taylor have a legitimate scientific
> basis for telling the public and reporters that just because
> there is less, but still alot, of milkweed growing on
> midwestern farmland, the monarch migration could be
> on the brink of collapse as he says or implies in these
> videos?:
>
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qZXGRZMrsDU
> http://www.features.ku.edu/monarchs/
>
> 3) Does any credible science exist to support the contention
> that temperatures in the overwintering region of Mexico
> could conceivably increase by a staggering and
> unprecedented 3-4 degrees during the next 18 years
> and (Chip Taylor's words} "eliminate most of the suitable
> areas for overwintering because it would eliminate the
> oyamel fir trees."?
>
> So far, after several days of discussion, we see the answers
> to all three questions are No.
>
> So it appears it's time to end this discussion - although
> bearing in mind that a new round of "monarch migration
> could be threatened" type articles is very likely to appear
> in the popular press within the next 1-3 weeks (i.e. articles
> in the New York Times, Washington Post, Boston Globe,
> Los Angeles Times, etc).
>
> Paul Cherubini
> El Dorado, Calif.
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