[Leps-l] Models Under Predicting Current Temperatures

[Chuck Vaughn]

In recent discussions here I made a comment that none of the climate models have been able to predict the present from the past. I don't archive all these messages but I think it was Chip Taylor that mentioned that it was recently shown that the models are actually under predicting current temperatures. I responded that I had not heard that anywhere but would try to do some research on it.

It's come to my attention that this came out of a talk given by Michael Mann at the American Geophysical Union conference in December 2012. Steve McIntyre has posted an analysis of how Mann was able to make it look like the models have under predicted current temperatures. He's calling it "Mike's AGU Trick."

http://climateaudit.org/2013/03/02/mikes-agu-trick/#more-17336

Turns out that if you compare GISS global land only temperature data to a model that used land and sea data (land runs hotter) to predict temperatures and truncate the data in 2005 instead of using the most recent data, you can make it look like the models have under predicted current temperatures when that is not the case. They are still over predicting temperatures.

Chuck