[Leps-l] The delay in reporting the figures for the size of the Mexican monarch overwintering colonies this past winter.

[Paul Cherubini]

Will the numbers be up or down?  Last November Dr. 
Chip Taylor predicted numbers would be down about 
50% due to a severe drought and high temperatures 
in the Dakotas last summer. 20 second video: 
https://youtu.be/zSA877o_v0A <https://youtu.be/zSA877o_v0A>

If Chip’s prediction is correct, the 15 year overwintering
population graph will look like this:
https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/931/eQST7W.jpg <https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/931/eQST7W.jpg>

I hold the view that numbers will be higher based on a 
strong - 20 butterflies per minute - migration I observed 
and video recorded in south-central Minnesota on 
August 29, 2021:  https://youtu.be/Q1ugyulER6Q <https://youtu.be/Q1ugyulER6Q>

Also based on these 2020 vs 2021 Journey North 
"fall roost" reports that show more roosts in 2021 in the 
Wisconsin/Michigan/ Illinois/Indiana/Ohio area, plus a 
stronger late October/early Nov migration in the hill 
country of Texas slightly west of San Antonio:
https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/9528/vk7v1J.jpg <https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/9528/vk7v1J.jpg>

If my prediction is correct, the 15 year overwintering
Population graph will look like this:
https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/4813/p1u9ab.jpg <https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/4813/p1u9ab.jpg>

We should know one way or the other sometime this month.

Paul Cherubini
El Dorado, Calif.
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