[Leps-l] The delay in reporting the figures for the size of the Mexican monarch overwintering colonies this past winter.

[Taylor Jr, Orley R]

Paul et al: Yes, there have been some reports from Mexico suggesting that my prediction was too pessimistic. Over the years my predictions have often been on the low side of the real numbers though I was spot on in 2000 with a prediction of 2 hectares. When making my prediction for 2001, I also looked at the roost counts and the numbers reported per roost. I compared those numbers with previous years, but unlike you, I didn’t regard these numbers to be indicative of a population larger than the 2.1 hectares reported in 2000 partly because the migration east of Madison contributes less to the ow numbers than the roosts to the West of Madison.

Your graphs indicate hectares when it seems you are referring to acres. Your 7 acres when converted is 2.83 hectares - and if the numbers of occupied threes at El Rosario we were repeatedly told about were accurate - you could be right.


Chip Taylor[cid:E7FD9FA8-0FDC-477C-B2CA-2AB4734CC004 at bbrouter]Director,
Monarch Watch,
University of Kansas
chip at ku.edu<mailto:chip at ku.edu>




On Apr 2, 2022, at 2:17 AM, Paul Cherubini <monarch at saber.net<mailto:monarch at saber.net>> wrote:

Will the numbers be up or down?  Last November Dr.
Chip Taylor predicted numbers would be down about
50% due to a severe drought and high temperatures
in the Dakotas last summer. 20 second video:
https://youtu.be/zSA877o_v0A

If Chip’s prediction is correct, the 15 year overwintering
population graph will look like this:
https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/931/eQST7W.jpg

I hold the view that numbers will be higher based on a
strong - 20 butterflies per minute - migration I observed
and video recorded in south-central Minnesota on
August 29, 2021:  https://youtu.be/Q1ugyulER6Q

Also based on these 2020 vs 2021 Journey North
"fall roost" reports that show more roosts in 2021 in the
Wisconsin/Michigan/ Illinois/Indiana/Ohio area, plus a
stronger late October/early Nov migration in the hill
country of Texas slightly west of San Antonio:
https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/9528/vk7v1J.jpg

If my prediction is correct, the 15 year overwintering
Population graph will look like this:
https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/4813/p1u9ab.jpg

We should know one way or the other sometime this month.

Paul Cherubini
El Dorado, Calif.
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