[Leps-l] The delay in reporting the figures for the size of the Mexican monarch overwintering colonies this past winter.

[Taylor Jr, Orley R]

Trees vs threes. Sorry, I must have been thinking of the Final Four game today.

Rock Chalk.

Chip Taylor
Director,
Monarch Watch,
University of Kansas
chip at ku.edu




> On Apr 2, 2022, at 11:37 AM, Taylor Jr, Orley R <chip at ku.edu> wrote:
> 
> Paul et al: Yes, there have been some reports from Mexico suggesting that my prediction was too pessimistic. Over the years my predictions have often been on the low side of the real numbers though I was spot on in 2000 with a prediction of 2 hectares. When making my prediction for 2001, I also looked at the roost counts and the numbers reported per roost. I compared those numbers with previous years, but unlike you, I didn’t regard these numbers to be indicative of a population larger than the 2.1 hectares reported in 2000 partly because the migration east of Madison contributes less to the ow numbers than the roosts to the West of Madison.
> 
> Your graphs indicate hectares when it seems you are referring to acres. Your 7 acres when converted is 2.83 hectares - and if the numbers of occupied threes at El Rosario we were repeatedly told about were accurate - you could be right. 
> 
> 
> Chip Taylor<monarch-population-figure-monarchwatch-2021.png>Director,
> Monarch Watch,
> University of Kansas
> chip at ku.edu
> 
> 
> 
> 
>> On Apr 2, 2022, at 2:17 AM, Paul Cherubini <monarch at saber.net> wrote:
>> 
>> Will the numbers be up or down?  Last November Dr. 
>> Chip Taylor predicted numbers would be down about 
>> 50% due to a severe drought and high temperatures 
>> in the Dakotas last summer. 20 second video: 
>> https://youtu.be/zSA877o_v0A
>> 
>> If Chip’s prediction is correct, the 15 year overwintering
>> population graph will look like this:
>> https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/931/eQST7W.jpg
>> 
>> I hold the view that numbers will be higher based on a 
>> strong - 20 butterflies per minute - migration I observed 
>> and video recorded in south-central Minnesota on 
>> August 29, 2021:  https://youtu.be/Q1ugyulER6Q
>> 
>> Also based on these 2020 vs 2021 Journey North 
>> "fall roost" reports that show more roosts in 2021 in the 
>> Wisconsin/Michigan/ Illinois/Indiana/Ohio area, plus a 
>> stronger late October/early Nov migration in the hill 
>> country of Texas slightly west of San Antonio:
>> https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/9528/vk7v1J.jpg
>> 
>> If my prediction is correct, the 15 year overwintering
>> Population graph will look like this:
>> https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/4813/p1u9ab.jpg
>> 
>> We should know one way or the other sometime this month.
>> 
>> Paul Cherubini
>> El Dorado, Calif.
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