[EAS]Global Trends 2015

pjk peter.kindlmann at yale.edu
Sat Dec 23 16:13:14 EST 2000

Subject:   Global Trends 2015

Dear Colleagues -

My US readers may have heard this report discussed on National
Public Radio. Although this document is very sketchy, material of
this kind benefits courses where one wants to teach students
to distinguish between projections based on plausible demographic
extrapolation (e.g. evolving population age distribution and health
care) vs. those based on hopes, fears, beliefs and dreams. 

Projections about the role of technology are usually in the latter
category. They stir far greater media coverage which accords them
the inevitability of natural law. One could juxtapose such
'technological determinism' to readings of earlier projections,
such a John Naisbitt's books "Megatrends" (1982) and "Megatrends
2000" (1990), and their varied outcomes. This might make a more
valuable contribution to engineering education than the latest
technological wrinkle. 

Much uncritical generation and consumption of technology trend
projection would be curbed by a grasp of the history of technology,
going back at least 15 years, preferably 50 years or more. But like
most instances of reflection and evaluation, it would probably be
bad for the economy.

   --Peter Kindlmann


Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue About the Future With Nongovernment

Recently released, this report was prepared under the direction of
the National Intelligence Council (NIC) and is the product of
numerous workshops and conferences which included specialists from
academia and the private sector. The report is an effort to
"identify major drivers and trends that will shape the world of
2015." Among those identified are demographics, natural resources,
science and technology, globalization, and the role of the United
States, among others. The report begins with an overview and
summary of the key points, then each of the trends are examined in

>From The Scout Report, Copyright Internet Scout Project 1994-2000.

More information about the EAS-INFO mailing list