Queen in NJ: what should its status be

Paul Cherubini monarch at saber.net
Tue Jul 31 19:31:29 EDT 2001


Liz Day wrote:

> That's assuming they don't move.  There may be only one per 640 homes at
> any one time, but if each one flies over 100 homes, that potentially means
> a lot more people might see it.

Great point Liz.  So maybe the next step is to look
at the probability that one of those 640 homes would be occupied
by a butterfly watcher and the probability that the watcher would
be out watching when the deliberately released butterfly flew over.

But I am no math or modeling wizard so welcome ideas and input
from the experts in this area. It seems we should eventually be
able to arrive at a model that could predict the probability of
sighting a deliberately released monarch or painted lady based
on different sets of assumptions and circumstances.

Paul Cherubini

 
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