Queen in NJ: what should its status be

[cmbb at sk.sympatico.ca]

----- Original Message -----
From: "Paul Cherubini" <monarch at saber.net>
To: <leps-l at lists.yale.edu>
Sent: Tuesday, July 31, 2001 5:31 PM
Subject: Re: Queen in NJ: what should its status be


> Liz Day wrote:
>
> > That's assuming they don't move.  There may be only one per 640 homes at
> > any one time, but if each one flies over 100 homes, that potentially
means
> > a lot more people might see it.
>
> Great point Liz.  So maybe the next step is to look
> at the probability that one of those 640 homes would be occupied
> by a butterfly watcher and the probability that the watcher would
> be out watching when the deliberately released butterfly flew over.
>
> But I am no math or modeling wizard so welcome ideas and input
> from the experts in this area. It seems we should eventually be
> able to arrive at a model that could predict the probability of
> sighting a deliberately released monarch or painted lady based
> on different sets of assumptions and circumstances.
>
> Paul Cherubini
>
>  That was what I was trying to get at when I asked the question, "how many
butterflies crossed the road?"   On the morning in question I travelled west
through cropland.  In one twenty mile stretch 75 + Painted Lady kept
crossing my path.  Later in the day I travelled first back east and then
south.  In one twenty-five mile stretch 100+  Painted Lady were once again
in evidence.  The habitat was the same as in the morning - prairie cropland.

So the question is, what are the parameters that you have to take into
account?  It has been suggested that speed of vehicle does not affect your
count.  What about field of view? That is, I suspect that I only saw
laterally twenty-five - the width of two highway lanes.  Then distance
travelled.  Is that the starting point of any estimation?  If it is in this
case, and combined with potential habitat that can be occupied at any one
time by Vanessa cardui, their numbers this year have to be in the millions.

Martin Bailey








 
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