Queen in NJ: what should its status be

Joel Lyons jrlyons at bellsouth.net
Tue Jul 31 22:03:41 EDT 2001


Hopefully this is some kind of wry satire, eh?

Paul Cherubini wrote:

> Liz Day wrote:
>
> > That's assuming they don't move.  There may be only one per 640 homes at
> > any one time, but if each one flies over 100 homes, that potentially means
> > a lot more people might see it.
>
> Great point Liz.  So maybe the next step is to look
> at the probability that one of those 640 homes would be occupied
> by a butterfly watcher and the probability that the watcher would
> be out watching when the deliberately released butterfly flew over.
>
> But I am no math or modeling wizard so welcome ideas and input
> from the experts in this area. It seems we should eventually be
> able to arrive at a model that could predict the probability of
> sighting a deliberately released monarch or painted lady based
> on different sets of assumptions and circumstances.
>
> Paul Cherubini
>
>
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