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Paul Cherubini monarch at
Sun Mar 24 17:49:04 EST 2002

Stan Gorodenski wrote:

> Fourth, Mike Quinn qualified his statement "Hopefully it will come back.
> But we'll be on pins and needles for awhile." What was he supposed to
> have said, something like, "We are absolutely certain there will be no
> adverse impact on the Monarch"? Wouldn't this be untruthful? I think it
> would. The citizens of Texas already know, from Mike's statement, there
> is some uncertainty surrounding the prediction of an adverse future of
> the Monarch.

Stan, Mike made it sound like the migratory monarch was being pushed 
to the brink of extinction with the following statements he made to
the Fort Worth newspaper reporter:
"This critter is being pushed to the limits" said Mike Quinn an invertebrate
biologist with the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department. "Hopefully it
will come back. But we'll be on pins and needles for awhile."

Like the spring migration in 2001, this year's is "going to be barely
perceptible" Quinn said because of the winter storm that hit the colonies
near Mexico City in mid-January.
I feel a more appropriate response to the Fort Worth reporter might have 

"It will take several more weeks before independent teams of American
and Mexican scientists get a handle on the true scope of the storm
related mortality in Mexico.  Until we have hard data in hand, we can't
speculate on the size of the spring migration.  Last spring, the 
migration though Texas was barely perceptible, yet seven months later
the size of the fall migration passing through Texas was above normal.
Thus, even if there was heavy mortality in Mexico it still is
possible the subsequently summer breeding and fall migratory
populations will be normal or even above normal."

Paul Cherubini


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