[leps-talk] Credible sources
Patrick Foley
patfoley at csus.edu
Thu Oct 9 10:47:12 EDT 2003
Paul,
Now you are talking!
I especially appreciate the population time series. But for Monarch's
sake and all our sakes, can't we get a source and methodology for this
data and some idea of the uncertainty in this data?
If we are to get a clearer and more honest picture of the Monarch's
status and prospects, we need a _quantitative_ description of the
changes in critical winter habitat. Your pictures are suggestive, but we
all know how easy it is to pick out samples for our own convenience.
We need to ask 1) how does Monarch winter survivorship depend on the
amounts of land in old growth, secondary growth, clear cut and milpas?
And 2)how much of the winter sites fall into these (or other land use
categories) and how will the land use distribution change in the future?
Question 2 is fairly easy to answer (given a little money to pay
scientists to measure it, and given a little stability in land use
planning).
Question 1 is much harder. Your population time series would help. Is
there any historical data about land use distribution during this time?
And is it possible to predict survivorship from such data? These are not
rhetorical questions nor am I putting you on the spot. The entire
Monarch community (including the black sheep), should be addressing
these questions. Are they? Chip or others, please tell?
There is a developing but immature science of modeling wildlife-habitat
relations. (See the recent big expensive book by Mike Morrison et al.
Predicting Species Occurrence). More information and modeling of
Monarchs could calm our worries, disinflame our flames, provide a model
for other such research, and even help preserve critical habitat.
A disclaimer: I do not do research on the Monarch and get no money from
Monarch conservation organizations. I have modeled extinction for other
butterflies (and mammals and birds). And I am not a disinterested
party. My paycheck comes from organization dedicated to the ruthless
brainwashing of teen agers and young adults towards the ultimate goal of
improving scientific knowledge and critical thinking.
Patrick
patfoley at csus.edu
Paul Cherubini wrote:
> Ken Davenport wrote:
>
>
>>In the end, as Ron Gatrelle commented...the Monarchs > (or other butterfly species) are the ultimate witnesses or authorities.
>
>
> Yes, but how can the public find out how well the monarch is
> doing? They must rely on the monarch scientists / conservationists
> to tell them the results of the monarch population measurements that
> have been conducted at the overwintering sites in Mexico. These
> measurements have been carried out annually since 1978, so 25 years
> worth of monarch census data is available. But what monarch
> scientist / conservationist has ever been willing to share this
> information with the public? Answer: None of them have.
>
> You can visit Dr. Brower's Monarch Santuary Foundation website,
> or Dr. Chip Taylor's Monarch Watch website or the Michoacan
> Reforestation Project website, Journey North website, etc. and
> find little or only fragmentary census data results posted. So the public
> is left in the dark about how well the monarch is doing even though
> the public ultimately pays for this census work.
>
> Likewise, how can the public find out the condition of the forests
> where the monarchs overwinter? Once again they must rely on the
> monarch scientists / conservationists to tell them and to show them
> photos. But what monarch scientist / conservationist has ever been
> willing to share the key photos they have of the forests (SW facing
> slopes) where the monarchs overwinter? Answer: None of them have.
> They show lots and lots of photos of forest clearings due to logging
> or forest fires, http://www.saber.net/~monarch/chivati.JPG
> but these clearings are nearly all on north slopes which the monarchs
> don't use or on slopes below the altitude where the monarchs
> overwinter. So the public almost never gets to see pictures of the
> condition of the forest on the SW facing slopes where the monarchs
> actually cluster.
>
> Finally, how can the public find out about water and flower nectar
> resources the butterflies use while in Mexico? Once again they must rely
> on the monarch scientists / conservationists to tell them and to show
> them photos. But what monarch scientist / conservationist has ever been
> willing to share the key photos they have that indicate that the chief
> water /bflower nectar sources are found (ironically) on ground where the
> forest has been cleared for human uses such as agriculture and road
> building? Answer: None of them have.
>
> I have done a few things here and there to try and correct the situation.
> Like I put together this graph of the monarch census data going back to
> 1985: http://www.saber.net/~monarch/mexicopop.jpg The graph is
> still incomplete and has some data gaps that need to be filled in, but
> it's a start and it shows the public the monarch in not headed down
> the path to extinction as they so often hear from the conservation
> societies http://www.saber.net/~monarch/wwf.jpg And rather than
> misleading the public by showing them only forest clearings like this
> http://www.saber.net/~monarch/kurt1.JPG below the altitude where the
> monarchs overwinter, I show them the outstanding condition of the
> forest higher up on the SW slopes where the butterflies actually
> overwinter: http://www.saber.net/~monarch/chincuadis.JPG
> http://www.saber.net/~monarch/elrosariodis.jpg With regard to water
> resources, I show the public that the patches of forest that have been
> logged to grow corn also provide moist ground for the butterflies to
> obtain drinking water http://www.saber.net/~monarch/meadow.JPG
> And I show that monarchs use roads that humans have built through
> the forest as a pathway down to these water sources:
> http://www.saber.net/~monarch/monarchhighway.jpg
> Lastly, whereas the conservationists constantly speculate about
> how forest thinning is probably correlated with monarch mortality
> during snowstorms and freezes http://www.saber.net/~monarch/wwf.jpg
> I show an actual photo taken after the worst-ever die off in Jan. 2002,
> that shows butterfly mortality was high, ironically, where the forest
> cover was very dense http://www.saber.net/~monarch/chincuaintact.jpg
>
> My input on all this tend to anger the monarch scientists / conservationists.
> Privately they call me a "spoiler" and publicly some call me a "conspiracy
> theorist" "oddball" "laughing stock" and such.
>
> Paul Cherubini
>
>
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