[Leps-l] Potential loss of monarch overwintering habitat in Mexico

Chuck Vaughn aa6g at aa6g.org
Sat Feb 16 19:13:35 EST 2013


That graph shows the effects of Pacific Decadal Oscillation superimposed on a long term warming trend since the end of the Little Ice Age. If you removed the PDO the graph would show a steady warming of 0.8C over the last 150 years, long before the burning of any significant fossil fuels. When I look at that graph I don't see any obvious anthropogenic signature.

There were glacier advances during the cooler periods but the overall trend is glacier retreat, as you'd expect in a warming world.

Chuck



> On Feb 16, 2013, at 1:52 PM, Chip Taylor wrote:
> 
>> I'm hoping these guys are wrong but I 
>> wouldn't bet on it since most of the recent 
>> climate models have tended to underestimate 
>> rather than overestimate the rate of change. And, 
>> it's a fact that temperatures are increasing at 
>> mid and high elevations all over the tropics and 
>> subtropics, indeed over the planet.
> 
> The actual world temperature record shows that since
> the end of the Little Ice Age around 1860, there have been 
> alternating 20-30 year long cycles of warming and stable 
> (or slightly cooling) temperatures like this:
> http://img191.imageshack.us/img191/38/30yrscycle.jpg
> 
> This suggests we are currently 13 years into a period 
> of temperature stability that should last until sometime 
> between 1919 and 2029.
> 
> Paul Cherubini
> El Dorado, Calif.
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